We Are Not Alone

R^* is the average rate of star formation in our

f_p is the fraction of those stars that have planets

n_e is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

f_ℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point

f_i is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

f_c is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

This is the Drake Equation and it was developed by Frank Drake to determine the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible. Of course all of the variables in this equations are just that, variables, meaning they can vary and be as low or as high as the person who is guessing wants them to be. The currently accepted result for N (or at least as it is posted on wikipedia) is 2.3, that means around 2 civilizations in our galaxy that should have the ability to communicate with us right now! Some more optimistic experts have figured it to be as high as N = 50!

Lets take a closer look at most widely accepted product of the Drake equation. (N = 2.3) In the aforementioned equation:

f_i = the fraction of plants with intelligent life which actually go on to develop intelligent life

Estimated by Drake as 0.01

Ok, I can understand that intelligent life would be rare, in fact, if it hadn't been for a giant meteor this planet would probably still be inhabited by Dinosaurs. However, the next value estimated by Drake just doesn't make sense to me.

f_c = the fraction of the above which are willing and able to communicate

Estimated by Drake as 0.01.

You're telling me that only 1% of intelligent lifeforms would want to communicate with other alien civilizations!? give me a break! Almost as soon as we developed the ability to use radio telescopes we were sending off messages into outer-space and I'm supposed to believe that only 1% of other intelligent species would do the same!? Insanity!

L = the expected lifetime of such a civilization for the period that it can communicate across interstellar space

Estimated by Drake as 10,000 years.

Some scientist believe this number to be overly generous. Many naysayers believe that all intelligent species cause their own destruction, they use our own planet as an example of why this number is too high, paleeaase. Even if we had a nuclear war, much of the population would survive and learn it's lesson.

Now another important thing to remember about this equation is that it is under the assumption that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light. That we would only be able to use radio signals to communicate with other civilizations is very pessimistic in my opinion. Many people much smarter than you or I believe that space can be bent, and that for some civilizations with the proper technology, traveling vast distances in a short amount of time could be possible! If faster-than-light travel truly is possible, you can bet that N would be a much higher value.

Now do I believe that aliens have visited our planet? Hard to say, but I'm not going to close my mind to the idea since I have absolutely no proof to the contrary. I have recently seen a very good film called Out of the Blue that goes in-depth about various documented encounters with UFOs. This film has many interviews with various government officials as well as some very impressive footage and interesting reenactments. I've seen many documentaries on Conspiracy theories, and I feel that this movie stands alone in it's research and believability. Check it out!